Post by Paddy by Grace on Jan 27, 2010 1:58:38 GMT -7
Record Jet Stream Produces Storms of Biblical Proportions
OK, this all hit us here in Arizona last week and it was powerful. It's possible there may be more on the way so let's be alert!
jet stream hitting Southern California is as powerful as has ever been recorded, over 230 mph
www.santamonicadispatch.com/?p=1611
standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Earth_Changes/100122.Biblical.weather.jet.stream.html
January 22, 2010Samuel Y. Johnson
Western Coastal and Marine Geology, USGS
Pacific Science Center
The jet stream that is going to hit Southern California is as powerful as has ever been recorded on this planet before, over 230 mph. The jet is at an extremely unusually low altitude, not 30,000 to 60,000 feet, but coming as low as 8,000 feet. This jet will be traveling over the unusually warm El Nino waters of the eastern pacific, and will be carrying freakish amounts of energy and moisture. A huge series of storms is going to slam into Los Angeles and the surrounding areas just one after another for day after day for up to two weeks.
The initial storms will be very cold, with snow levels as low as 3,000 feet. Heavy rain and snow will be hitting California from San Diego to Eureka. Next week, the driest places will see at least 3 inches of rain, the Los Angeles basin and northern parts of the county and Ventura will see 6 to 10 inches. The wettest areas and cells within the system will hit with up to 20 inches of rain. Snowfall in the Sierras will be measured in the TENS of feet. Powerful winds will be associated with this storm--like a powerful Santa Ana but blowing in the opposite direction, west to east. Gusts up to 80 mph are forecast.
But it gets worse. For the first time that I'm aware of, ALL of the various models are in agreement about the second week of the storm. Normally, beyond a week, the models diverge. But due to the extreme strength of the weather producing factors, this time all of the models produce the same results for the 8-14 day period.
For the week of the 24th, we will be hit with a powerful and WARM series of storms, as strong as any we've seen. This heavy warm rainfall will fall onto the newly laid snowpack and what will be totally saturated ground, especially in the burn areas of LA and will produce tremendous melting and runoff, and the potential for record flooding.
Due to the low altitude of the jet stream, 200+ mph winds will slam directly into the Sierras, producing tornado strength winds over a 200 mile wide front. DON'T head to Mammoth for skiing when you hear about the huge snow fall in the first week.
Planes and helicopters are migrating out of the coastal bases and into the interior bases of Arizona and Nevada. They're taking this very seriously. A friend of Scott's is a Navy weather forecaster and he told Scott that the military is moving assets east out of the way ahead of this storm.
This may sound alarmist, but websites I check related to weather modeling are using the word "Biblical" for this system. If you can work from home or commute by train, please plan on doing so. The LA freeway system is going to be a mess for the next week or two.
From: UC Environmental Protection Services Issues
Sent: Thursday, January 14, 2010 1:24 PM
To: UCEPS-L@LISTSERV.UCOP.EDU
Subject: Winter Storm Warning starting Sunday
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.
This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned...
www.santamonicadispatch.com/?p=1611
standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Earth_Changes/100122.Biblical.weather.jet.stream.html
OK, this all hit us here in Arizona last week and it was powerful. It's possible there may be more on the way so let's be alert!
jet stream hitting Southern California is as powerful as has ever been recorded, over 230 mph
www.santamonicadispatch.com/?p=1611
standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Earth_Changes/100122.Biblical.weather.jet.stream.html
January 22, 2010Samuel Y. Johnson
Western Coastal and Marine Geology, USGS
Pacific Science Center
The jet stream that is going to hit Southern California is as powerful as has ever been recorded on this planet before, over 230 mph. The jet is at an extremely unusually low altitude, not 30,000 to 60,000 feet, but coming as low as 8,000 feet. This jet will be traveling over the unusually warm El Nino waters of the eastern pacific, and will be carrying freakish amounts of energy and moisture. A huge series of storms is going to slam into Los Angeles and the surrounding areas just one after another for day after day for up to two weeks.
The initial storms will be very cold, with snow levels as low as 3,000 feet. Heavy rain and snow will be hitting California from San Diego to Eureka. Next week, the driest places will see at least 3 inches of rain, the Los Angeles basin and northern parts of the county and Ventura will see 6 to 10 inches. The wettest areas and cells within the system will hit with up to 20 inches of rain. Snowfall in the Sierras will be measured in the TENS of feet. Powerful winds will be associated with this storm--like a powerful Santa Ana but blowing in the opposite direction, west to east. Gusts up to 80 mph are forecast.
But it gets worse. For the first time that I'm aware of, ALL of the various models are in agreement about the second week of the storm. Normally, beyond a week, the models diverge. But due to the extreme strength of the weather producing factors, this time all of the models produce the same results for the 8-14 day period.
For the week of the 24th, we will be hit with a powerful and WARM series of storms, as strong as any we've seen. This heavy warm rainfall will fall onto the newly laid snowpack and what will be totally saturated ground, especially in the burn areas of LA and will produce tremendous melting and runoff, and the potential for record flooding.
Due to the low altitude of the jet stream, 200+ mph winds will slam directly into the Sierras, producing tornado strength winds over a 200 mile wide front. DON'T head to Mammoth for skiing when you hear about the huge snow fall in the first week.
Planes and helicopters are migrating out of the coastal bases and into the interior bases of Arizona and Nevada. They're taking this very seriously. A friend of Scott's is a Navy weather forecaster and he told Scott that the military is moving assets east out of the way ahead of this storm.
This may sound alarmist, but websites I check related to weather modeling are using the word "Biblical" for this system. If you can work from home or commute by train, please plan on doing so. The LA freeway system is going to be a mess for the next week or two.
From: UC Environmental Protection Services Issues
Sent: Thursday, January 14, 2010 1:24 PM
To: UCEPS-L@LISTSERV.UCOP.EDU
Subject: Winter Storm Warning starting Sunday
Currently, the strong El Nino is reaching its peak in the Eastern Pacific, and now finally appears to be exerting an influence on our weather. The strong jet has been apparent for quite some time out over the open water, but the persistent block had prevented it from reaching the coast. Now that the block has dissolved completely, a 200+ kt jet is barreling towards us. Multiple large and powerful storm systems are expected to slam into CA from the west and northwest over the coming two weeks, all riding this extremely powerful jet stream directly into the state. The jet will itself provide tremendous dynamic lift, in addition to directing numerous disturbances right at the state and supplying them with an ample oceanic moisture source. The jet will be at quite a low latitude over much of the Pacific, so these storms will be quite cold, at least initially. Very heavy rainfall and strong to potentially very strong winds will impact the lower elevations beginning late Sunday and continuing through at least the following Sunday. This will be the case for the entire state, from (and south of) the Mexican border all the way up to Oregon. Above 3000-4000 feet, precipitation will be all snow, and since temperatures will be unusually cold for a precipitation event of this magnitude, a truly prodigious amount of snowfall is likely to occur in the mountains, possibly measured in the tens of feet in the Sierra after it's all said and done. But there's a big and rather threatening caveat to that (discussed below). Individual storm events are going to be hard to time for at least few more days, since this jet is just about as powerful as they come (on this planet, anyway). Between this Sunday and the following Sunday, I expect categorical statewide rainfall totals in excess of 3-4 inches. That is likely to be a huge underestimate for most areas. Much of NorCal is likely to see 5-10 inches in the lowlands, with 10-20 inches in orographically-favored areas. Most of SoCal will see 3-6 inches at lower elevations, with perhaps triple that amount in favored areas.
This is where things get even more interesting, though. The models are virtually unanimous in "reloading" the powerful jet stream and forming an additional persistent kink 2000-3000 miles to our southwest after next Sunday. This is a truly ominous pattern, because it implies the potential for a strong Pineapple-type connection to develop. Indeed, the 12z GFS now shows copious warm rains falling between days 12 and 16 across the entire state. Normally, such as scenario out beyond day seven would be dubious at best. Since the models are in such truly remarkable agreement, however, and because of the extremely high potential impact of such an event, it's worth mentioning now. Since there will be a massive volume of freshly-fallen snow (even at relatively low elevations between 3000-5000 feet), even a moderately warm storm event would cause very serious flooding. This situation will have to be monitored closely. Even if the tropical connection does not develop, expected rains in the coming 7-10 days will likely be sufficient to cause flooding in and of themselves (even in spite of dry antecedent conditions).
In addition to very heavy precipitation, powerful winds may result from very steep pressure gradients associated with the large and deep low pressure centers expect ed to begin approaching the coast by early next week. Though it's not clear at the moment just how powerful these winds may be, there is certainly the potential for a widespread damaging wind event at some point, and the high Sierra peaks are likely to see gusts in the 100-200 mph range (since the 200kt jet at 200-300 mb will essentially run directly into the mountains at some point). The details of this will have to be hashed out as the event(s) draw closer.
In short, the next 2-3 weeks (at least) are likely to be more active across California than any other 2-3 week period in recent memory. The potential exists for a dangerous flood scenario to arise at some point during this interval, especially with the possibility of a heavy rain-on-snow event during late week 2. In some parts of Southern California, a whole season's worth of rain could fall over the course of 5-10 days. This is likely to be a rather memorable event. Stay tuned...
www.santamonicadispatch.com/?p=1611
standeyo.com/NEWS/10_Earth_Changes/100122.Biblical.weather.jet.stream.html