Post by Paddy by Grace on Feb 8, 2010 2:19:33 GMT -7
bgdailynews.com/articles/2010/02/07/news/news4.txt
A lone scientist is waving the flag that earthquake drills planned for Kentucky this week might not be necessary.
“It’s harmless, but is it necessary? Probably not,” said Seth Stein, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at Northwestern University. “You are dealing with only a slight risk of earthquakes in the Midwest.”
Stein said he believes there is no major pressure building under the New Madrid fault, which the U.S. Geological Survey said extends from Missouri into Kentucky.
The earthquakes that have been felt in the area over the years, Stein believes, have just been aftershocks of the major 1811-12 quakes, one of which was responsible for emptying Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee. Those earthquakes were thought to be magnitude 7.2 to 8.0.
But don’t tell that to Chuck Langston, director of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis.
“There is scientific consensus on the hazards of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone,” Langston wrote in an op-ed piece in the Memphis Commercial Appeal on Friday.
“I know what the Northwestern University researchers say. But that’s just the way science works. You get 10 scientists in the same room to talk about the same thing and you’ll likely hear 10 different stories.”
Langston said the U.S. Geological Survey, of which there are two researchers at his center, is the national authority for information about earthquakes worldwide. Those researchers have continued to collect data on the fault.
“Here are the facts,” he wrote. “Geologists have found evidence of repeated large and destructive earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone over the past 4,500 years, with an average time interval between clusters of large events of about 500 years. The New Madrid Seismic Zone and surrounding regions within a 200-mile radius experience some 200 small earthquakes each year.”
Langston wrote that Stein’s research lacks the extraordinary evidence to support its claim that earthquakes will suddenly stop in the New Madrid fault zone.
Gary Patterson, director of education and outreach at the institute, said what most concerns scientists about the New Madrid fault is the breadth of the area that a quake would affect.
“An earthquake can cause damage based on its proximity to population, types of soils and the kind of structure you are in,” Patterson said. “Those are very important factors that influence losses. Another very important factor ... is the loss of seismic energy in increasing distance from the source.”
In Kentucky that energy dissipates much more slowly than it would during an earthquake of the same magnitude in California.
“An earthquake (Friday) in California was barely felt 150 miles away at a magnitude five,” he said. “The 1812 earthquakes were felt 1,200 miles away. One that size in California today would barely be felt 250 miles away in Las Vegas.
“An earthquake in the central U.S. would affect a ridiculously large area because the deep rocks allow the energy to travel a great distance,” Patterson said. “Most buildings are not designed for earthquakes here, particularly un-reinforced masonry structures that house our children, our fire departments and others. That’s why a lot of scientists are concerned.”
According to Russ Wheeler, a geologist with the USGS, another earthquake of the 1812 magnitude would be felt in Bowling Green and would be expected to cause damage similar to what was done then.
Witness accounts suggest average buildings sustained slight to moderate damage, while poorly built structures sustained considerable damage.
If another 7.2 magnitude quake hits, 25 Kentucky counties are expected to receive the brunt of the damage in the state, including Logan County, according to a 2008 report from the Mid-America Earthquake Center, which was funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In all, nearly 30,000 buildings would be destroyed and 53,000 would sustain moderate to severe damage. About $45 billion in losses could be expected for Kentucky, including damage to wastewater facilities and bridges in those 25 counties, the report said.
Controversy or not, the number of earthquake insurance policies issued in the state continues to rise.
There are now more than 50 companies that write earthquake riders for insurance policies in Kentucky. Those policies total more than $37 million, according to A.M. Best, which provides financial rating and research information about insurers.
Without those riders, homeowners’ policies will not cover any damage that incurs as a result of an earthquake, according to Julie Pulliam of the Southeast Region of the American Insurance Association.
“Combined industry earthquake premiums have increased about 23 percent since 2004. Probably a combination of increasing policy uptake, increasing costs to rebuild (therefore higher premium), and some increase in base level earthquake insurance rates,” Pulliam said.
Despite the recent controversy, the Warren County Emergency Management Agency plans to have an earthquake drill and activate the outdoor warning system at 9 a.m. Wednesday.
“We go under the assumption that it could happen and we want citizens to be prepared,” said Ronnie Pearson, director of the agency.
Pearson said that since the first of the year there have been more than 100 quakes in the United States, including a small one in western Tennessee. Pearson said the USGS has plenty of information available that shows there still is a danger from the fault.
During Wednesday’s drill, schools and businesses will be asked to implement their response plans, which primarily include getting under something sturdy and holding on until the shaking stops. In the case of a real earthquake, citizens should shut off utilities that could be in danger of sparking a fire or exploding, treat the injured and report damage to officials.
Pearson said his office can help businesses map out response plans and information is available online at wcem.org or ky.em.gov.
Pearson said he left it up to the schools as to what day they wanted to complete their drill, but Bowling Green Independent Schools Superintendent Joe Tinius said they would be participating in the drill when the warning sirens sound.
A lone scientist is waving the flag that earthquake drills planned for Kentucky this week might not be necessary.
“It’s harmless, but is it necessary? Probably not,” said Seth Stein, a professor of earth and planetary sciences at Northwestern University. “You are dealing with only a slight risk of earthquakes in the Midwest.”
Stein said he believes there is no major pressure building under the New Madrid fault, which the U.S. Geological Survey said extends from Missouri into Kentucky.
The earthquakes that have been felt in the area over the years, Stein believes, have just been aftershocks of the major 1811-12 quakes, one of which was responsible for emptying Reelfoot Lake in Tennessee. Those earthquakes were thought to be magnitude 7.2 to 8.0.
But don’t tell that to Chuck Langston, director of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis.
“There is scientific consensus on the hazards of large earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone,” Langston wrote in an op-ed piece in the Memphis Commercial Appeal on Friday.
“I know what the Northwestern University researchers say. But that’s just the way science works. You get 10 scientists in the same room to talk about the same thing and you’ll likely hear 10 different stories.”
Langston said the U.S. Geological Survey, of which there are two researchers at his center, is the national authority for information about earthquakes worldwide. Those researchers have continued to collect data on the fault.
“Here are the facts,” he wrote. “Geologists have found evidence of repeated large and destructive earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone over the past 4,500 years, with an average time interval between clusters of large events of about 500 years. The New Madrid Seismic Zone and surrounding regions within a 200-mile radius experience some 200 small earthquakes each year.”
Langston wrote that Stein’s research lacks the extraordinary evidence to support its claim that earthquakes will suddenly stop in the New Madrid fault zone.
Gary Patterson, director of education and outreach at the institute, said what most concerns scientists about the New Madrid fault is the breadth of the area that a quake would affect.
“An earthquake can cause damage based on its proximity to population, types of soils and the kind of structure you are in,” Patterson said. “Those are very important factors that influence losses. Another very important factor ... is the loss of seismic energy in increasing distance from the source.”
In Kentucky that energy dissipates much more slowly than it would during an earthquake of the same magnitude in California.
“An earthquake (Friday) in California was barely felt 150 miles away at a magnitude five,” he said. “The 1812 earthquakes were felt 1,200 miles away. One that size in California today would barely be felt 250 miles away in Las Vegas.
“An earthquake in the central U.S. would affect a ridiculously large area because the deep rocks allow the energy to travel a great distance,” Patterson said. “Most buildings are not designed for earthquakes here, particularly un-reinforced masonry structures that house our children, our fire departments and others. That’s why a lot of scientists are concerned.”
According to Russ Wheeler, a geologist with the USGS, another earthquake of the 1812 magnitude would be felt in Bowling Green and would be expected to cause damage similar to what was done then.
Witness accounts suggest average buildings sustained slight to moderate damage, while poorly built structures sustained considerable damage.
If another 7.2 magnitude quake hits, 25 Kentucky counties are expected to receive the brunt of the damage in the state, including Logan County, according to a 2008 report from the Mid-America Earthquake Center, which was funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency.
In all, nearly 30,000 buildings would be destroyed and 53,000 would sustain moderate to severe damage. About $45 billion in losses could be expected for Kentucky, including damage to wastewater facilities and bridges in those 25 counties, the report said.
Controversy or not, the number of earthquake insurance policies issued in the state continues to rise.
There are now more than 50 companies that write earthquake riders for insurance policies in Kentucky. Those policies total more than $37 million, according to A.M. Best, which provides financial rating and research information about insurers.
Without those riders, homeowners’ policies will not cover any damage that incurs as a result of an earthquake, according to Julie Pulliam of the Southeast Region of the American Insurance Association.
“Combined industry earthquake premiums have increased about 23 percent since 2004. Probably a combination of increasing policy uptake, increasing costs to rebuild (therefore higher premium), and some increase in base level earthquake insurance rates,” Pulliam said.
Despite the recent controversy, the Warren County Emergency Management Agency plans to have an earthquake drill and activate the outdoor warning system at 9 a.m. Wednesday.
“We go under the assumption that it could happen and we want citizens to be prepared,” said Ronnie Pearson, director of the agency.
Pearson said that since the first of the year there have been more than 100 quakes in the United States, including a small one in western Tennessee. Pearson said the USGS has plenty of information available that shows there still is a danger from the fault.
During Wednesday’s drill, schools and businesses will be asked to implement their response plans, which primarily include getting under something sturdy and holding on until the shaking stops. In the case of a real earthquake, citizens should shut off utilities that could be in danger of sparking a fire or exploding, treat the injured and report damage to officials.
Pearson said his office can help businesses map out response plans and information is available online at wcem.org or ky.em.gov.
Pearson said he left it up to the schools as to what day they wanted to complete their drill, but Bowling Green Independent Schools Superintendent Joe Tinius said they would be participating in the drill when the warning sirens sound.