Experts predict volcano’s next move as ash cloud hits again
www.heraldscotland.com/news/transport-environment/experts-predict-volcano-s-next-move-as-ash-cloud-hits-again-1.1025549Guessing which way the wind will blow is as hard to fathom as the political mood of the nation.
But with skies over Scotland expected to clear today of ash from Eyjafjallajokull’s spluttering crater, experts say things may be heating up again at Iceland’s notorious hotspot – although that may not be a bad thing.
As thousands of Scottish passengers suffered delays and cancellations yesterday, and First Minister Alex Salmond criticised the Civil Aviation Authority for putting out misleading information, the latest predictions were being made about the volcano’s next move.
Dr Dave McGarvie, volcanologist for Open university, told The Herald that the return of the ash plume in recent days could have been expected given the ferocity of the initial eruptions last month. He said: “In the first two or three days, a lot of ash came out. And then it stabilised.
“For almost two weeks it’s been pretty stable, and it’s not been bothering us. What ash has been going up there hasn’t been going too high, and the winds haven’t been carrying it towards the UK.
The bad news is that it’s slightly hotter, so it might well end up melting a lot more ice in the summit crater, so you may get some more explosions Dr Dave McGarvie
“What happened over the last couple of days was we had some extra energy in the system that put ash quite a bit higher, and then we had the unfortunate consequence of the wind bringing the ash over the UK.
“We expect fluctuations in volcanoes like these. Icelandic scientists think there is actually fresh material coming from a great depth beneath the volcano and into the plumbing system beneath the volcano.”
When asked what that meant for Britain, Mr McGarvie said: “Good news and bad news. The good news is that magma that comes from very deep down is going to be more liquid, less sticky, so it’s not going to have the same potential to produce a lot of fine grained ash.
“The bad news is that it’s slightly hotter, so it might well end up melting a lot more ice in the summit crater, so you may get some more explosions. But it’s more likely to be quite local rather than sending stuff up high enough to affect the UK.”
The Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) said it hoped fewer restrictions would be needed today, although it warned the ash was “likely to continue to disrupt UK air travel for the foreseeable future”.
Andrew Haines, CAA chief executive, said: “Scientists are tracking the cloud’s movements constantly but its location changes frequently, depending on the strength of eruptions and prevailing winds. When the ash level exceeds that agreed as safe by the industry, we have to restrict flights accordingly.”
The Scottish Government said the latest advice suggested that the ash cloud cover above Scotland should clear overnight with normal air services expected to resume tomorrow.
Edinburgh Airport reopened at 7pm last night with the first flights airborne just minutes later and Glasgow was expected to reopen at 1am this morning.
It was an improvement on yesterday, however, when airspace above Scotland, Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland remained closed.
Mr Salmond accused the CAA of releasing a “vague” statement on Tuesday which suggested all Scottish airspace would be closed due to the ash cloud.
But Edinburgh and Aberdeen airports were, in fact, open for the first part of the day.
Mr Salmond said: “Unnecessarily, some flights were cancelled, particularly into Edinburgh, because of the vagueness of the press release. That can’t be allowed to happen again.”
A CAA spokeswoman said: “In this particular case there was a disconnect between the
external announcement and the aeronautical announcement. This will not happen again.”
Travellers stranded by air chaos
Ross County’s Scottish Cup final preparations were grounded yesterday by the ash cloud. Derek Adams and his Dingwall heroes were set for a training camp in Spain ahead of their date with Dundee United. But after making the trip to Glasgow, the squad was caught in the no-fly restrictions .
Matt Cooke, 37, and wife Catherine, 40 from Glasgow were stranded after they were turned away from two airports.
Their easyJet trip from Glasgow Airport to EuroDisney with daughter Rachel, was cancelled so they travelled to Edinburgh to catch an alternative – only to find that too had been grounded.
Kelly Henderson, 33, and Chris Brown, 29 of Aberdeen, were flying to Cyprus to get married when they where held up. Ms Henderson said: “We are getting married in Ayia Napa on May 11. So it is fingers crossed that we get there and everything works out okay.”
Newly-weds Judith and Andrew Wilson, from Kilmarnock, North Ayrshire, were last night looking at the possibility of travelling by bus to Manchester to catch a replacement flight from to their honeymoon destination in Calgary, Canada.
