Post by Paddy by Grace on Jul 5, 2010 5:47:14 GMT -7
Fed study shows high odds of Palm Beach County seeing BP oil offshore
www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/fed-study-shows-high-odds-of-palm-beach-783117.html
Oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill probably will hit Palm Beach County within seven or eight weeks, according to data released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
There's a 61 to 80 percent chance of a shoreline threat from the Keys through Palm Beach County, the NOAA determined based on 500 scenarios it ran through a computer model it has developed.
A shoreline threat means "receiving enough oil to cause a dull sheen within 20 miles of shore," the report states. It does not necessarily mean that oil will come ashore, although winds and currents might move the oil or tar balls onto shore.
A dull sheen results from a very thin layer of oil that also flattens the ocean surface. It is slightly thicker than the layer of oil creating the rainbow sheen often seen in puddles at gas stations.
The high probability of seeing oil here is because of the potential of the Loop Current to carry oil out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Gulf Stream that flows north along Florida's east coast.
However, the Loop Current hasn't had a significant effect so far, said Chris Barker, a physical oceanographer with NOAA's Emergency Response Division.
Three tendrils approached the northern edge of the Loop Current in the gulf in mid-June. Barker said most of that oil has dissipated, but one of NOAA's research vessels, the Nancy Foster, is on its way to that area to investigate.
The longer it takes oil to travel, the more it breaks into streamers and tar balls. Oil entering the Loop Current would need at least eight to 12 days just to reach the Florida Straits, the body of water between the Keys and Cuba, and after traveling so far in open water probably would be highly weathered, according to the NOAA.
"I'm not seeing anything that's a surprise to us," said Paul Davis, environmental manager for Palm Beach County's Environmental Enhancement and Restoration division. "It's as we were expecting that there's a chance of getting tar and some other forms of weathered oil here.
"Our plan is based on expecting tar balls as the most likely form," he said. "If it's a dull sheen there's not anything that we the county are going to be able to do about that."
That would be the responsibility of the U.S. Coast Guard and Unified Command, which coordinates skimmers and booms to combat offshore oil.
NOAA's model is based on 33,000 barrels of oil a day leaking out of the well for 90 days; it then estimates the probability of oil reaching an area within 120 days from day-one of the spill. It did not account for the current location of the oil slick or locations of subsurface oil plumes.
"We modeled a 90 day release, and it could end up being more like a 120 day release," Barker said of the oil spill. "I think that actually would not change the statistics much, because once you get to a certain period of time you've kind of reached a steady state of all the places that can be reached."
The probability that Palm Beach County will see a dull sheen off its shores in the second highest in the state after the Panhandle, where the probability predicted by the model was 81 to 100 percent. All of that area already has oil.
The west coast north of Tampa Bay has a one to 20 percent chance of seeing oil, while that coast south of Tampa has less than a 1 percent chance, again largely because of the Loop Current, which would more likely steer slicks into the Florida Straits and around the Keys.
As the Gulf Stream angles away from the continental United States north of Palm Beach County, there is an increasingly lower probability of shoreline effects, according to the study. If oil does reach these coastal areas north of eastern central Florida, it probably would be in the form of tar balls or highly weathered oil.
The predictions are also based on spring and summer weather, which might need to be changed if the well continues leaking for another couple months.
"As we move forward we'll be looking at perhaps redoing this analysis with a longer release," Barker said.
www.palmbeachpost.com/news/state/fed-study-shows-high-odds-of-palm-beach-783117.html
Oil from the Deepwater Horizon spill probably will hit Palm Beach County within seven or eight weeks, according to data released Friday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
There's a 61 to 80 percent chance of a shoreline threat from the Keys through Palm Beach County, the NOAA determined based on 500 scenarios it ran through a computer model it has developed.
A shoreline threat means "receiving enough oil to cause a dull sheen within 20 miles of shore," the report states. It does not necessarily mean that oil will come ashore, although winds and currents might move the oil or tar balls onto shore.
A dull sheen results from a very thin layer of oil that also flattens the ocean surface. It is slightly thicker than the layer of oil creating the rainbow sheen often seen in puddles at gas stations.
The high probability of seeing oil here is because of the potential of the Loop Current to carry oil out of the Gulf of Mexico and into the Gulf Stream that flows north along Florida's east coast.
However, the Loop Current hasn't had a significant effect so far, said Chris Barker, a physical oceanographer with NOAA's Emergency Response Division.
Three tendrils approached the northern edge of the Loop Current in the gulf in mid-June. Barker said most of that oil has dissipated, but one of NOAA's research vessels, the Nancy Foster, is on its way to that area to investigate.
The longer it takes oil to travel, the more it breaks into streamers and tar balls. Oil entering the Loop Current would need at least eight to 12 days just to reach the Florida Straits, the body of water between the Keys and Cuba, and after traveling so far in open water probably would be highly weathered, according to the NOAA.
"I'm not seeing anything that's a surprise to us," said Paul Davis, environmental manager for Palm Beach County's Environmental Enhancement and Restoration division. "It's as we were expecting that there's a chance of getting tar and some other forms of weathered oil here.
"Our plan is based on expecting tar balls as the most likely form," he said. "If it's a dull sheen there's not anything that we the county are going to be able to do about that."
That would be the responsibility of the U.S. Coast Guard and Unified Command, which coordinates skimmers and booms to combat offshore oil.
NOAA's model is based on 33,000 barrels of oil a day leaking out of the well for 90 days; it then estimates the probability of oil reaching an area within 120 days from day-one of the spill. It did not account for the current location of the oil slick or locations of subsurface oil plumes.
"We modeled a 90 day release, and it could end up being more like a 120 day release," Barker said of the oil spill. "I think that actually would not change the statistics much, because once you get to a certain period of time you've kind of reached a steady state of all the places that can be reached."
The probability that Palm Beach County will see a dull sheen off its shores in the second highest in the state after the Panhandle, where the probability predicted by the model was 81 to 100 percent. All of that area already has oil.
The west coast north of Tampa Bay has a one to 20 percent chance of seeing oil, while that coast south of Tampa has less than a 1 percent chance, again largely because of the Loop Current, which would more likely steer slicks into the Florida Straits and around the Keys.
As the Gulf Stream angles away from the continental United States north of Palm Beach County, there is an increasingly lower probability of shoreline effects, according to the study. If oil does reach these coastal areas north of eastern central Florida, it probably would be in the form of tar balls or highly weathered oil.
The predictions are also based on spring and summer weather, which might need to be changed if the well continues leaking for another couple months.
"As we move forward we'll be looking at perhaps redoing this analysis with a longer release," Barker said.